11 November 2012

Climate Likely to Be on Hotter Side of Projections





A new NASA-funded study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colo., finds climate model projections that show a greater rise in global temperature are likely to prove more accurate than those showing a lesser rise. The findings, published today in the journal Science, could provide a breakthrough in the longstanding quest to narrow the range of global warming expected in coming decades and beyond.

National Center for Atmospheric Research scientists John Fasullo and Kevin Trenberth analyzed how well 16 leading sophisticated climate models reproduce observed relative humidity in Earth’s tropics and subtropics. They used observations from two NASA satellite instruments – the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua spacecraft and the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments that fly on several NASA Earth satellites – along with a NASA data analysis called the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). AIRS was built by and is managed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. NASA’s Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va., manages the CERES mission.

The researchers found the climate models that most accurately captured these complex moisture processes and associated clouds, which have a major influence on global climate, were also the ones that showed the greatest amounts of warming as society emits more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

“There is a striking relationship between how well climate models simulate relative humidity in key areas and how much warming they show in response to increasing carbon dioxide,” said Fasullo. “Given how fundamental these processes are to clouds and the overall global climate, our findings indicate that warming is likely to be on the high side of current projections.”

The world’s major global climate models are all based on long-established physical laws known to guide the atmosphere. However, because these relationships are challenging to translate into software, each model differs slightly in its portrayal of global climate. In particular, some processes, such as those associated with clouds, are too small to be represented properly. Although satellites observe many types of clouds, satellite failure, observing errors and other inconsistencies make it challenging to build a comprehensive global cloud census that is consistent over many years.

However, satellites perform better in measuring water vapor, and estimates of the global distribution of relative humidity, such as provided by AIRS, have become more reliable. Relative humidity also is incorporated in climate models to generate and dissipate clouds.

The authors focused on the dry subtropics because seasonal drying and associated decrease in clouds there, especially during May through August, serve as a good analog for patterns projected by climate models. “If we can better represent these regions in models, we can improve our predictions and provide society with a better sense of the impacts to expect in a warming world,” said Fasullo.


AIRS project scientist Eric Fetzer of JPL, who was not involved with the study, called the work both encouraging and sobering. “These results were hiding in plain sight,” he said. “We have known for 30 years that clouds complicate climate forecasts, but instead of looking directly at clouds, this study examines clear regions. Their conclusions indicate that better model physics for clear areas will lead to improved climate forecasts, but warming is likely to be at the high end of current forecasts.”

Launched in 2002, AIRS, along with its partner microwave instrument, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A), measures Earth’s atmospheric temperature, water vapor, clouds and greenhouse gases with unprecedented accuracy and stability. Over the past decade, AIRS and AMSU-A have improved our understanding of Earth’s global water and energy cycles, climate change and trends and how Earth’s climate system is responding to increased greenhouse gases. For more on AIRS, visit:

For more on the study, read the full NCAR news release at:



Precision Technologies Role in the Study of Climate Change Impact

The Second session of the International Symposium Precision Technologies Role in the Study of Climate Change Impact and its implications on the Economic and Natural Structure: The reality and suggested solutions Istanbul, Turke...
by Lamouchi Helmi


5th International Conference on Water, Energy, Food and Agricultural Technology Istanbul, Turkey, 22-25 January 2019

5th International Conference on Water, Energy, Food and Agricultural Technology Istanbul, Turkey, 22-25 January 2019   Scientific themes 1-      water resources and desertification and agricultural techniques 2-   ...
by Lamouchi Helmi


10th edition of the International Congress & technologies dedicated to geospatial applications

The Geographic Information Systems and Geospace Data for sustainable development                              Under the slogan                                    Role of GIS appl...
by Lamouchi Helmi



Information Technology Infrastructure Library

Information Technology Infrastructure Library ITIL Oldo-lina Foundation for the French East development in collaboration with the Euro-Arab union Geomatics organizes training for IT Service Management ITIL V3 Will be held in Ly...
by Lamouchi Helmi


WEAP’s new version is launched

WEAP (Water Evolution and Planning) has been looking for solutions to preserve fresh water and developing strategies to live within certain water budget in a sustainable manner. WEAP’s teamwork is working in almost all over t...
by Lamouchi Helmi


Signing a collaboration protocol between the Euro-Arab Union of Geomatics and the Arab Union of Survey

A collaboration protocol was signed on Wednesday morning May 15,2013 inthe Euro-Arab Union of geomatics office inBeirut,Lebanon. The protocol states the technical and scientific cooperation between academics and professionals i...
by Lamouchi Helmi



7th edition of Geotunis closes its activities and announces its recommendations

The 7th edition of the international congress Geotunis which was opened on April 8 closed its activities on Friday, April 12 2013. The congress gathered the academic, training and investment aspects thanks to the remarkable int...
by Lamouchi Helmi


Tunisian security institution participates in the activities of the 7th edition of Geotunis

Regarding the importance of geographic information in the improving the security performance, the Tunisian security institution participated in the 7th edition of Geotunis, which was held in Hammamet 8- 12 April 2013. A study d...
by Lamouchi Helmi


Trimble participates in the 7th edition of geotunis

 The international Trimble company, specialized in the production of positioning via satellite devises, surveying techniques and mapping, participated in the 7th edition of geotunis, where it presented its latest techniques in...
by Lamouchi Helmi



The publication of the first edition of GeoSP

The first edition of GeoSP was published in April. The edition includes several researches and good quality studies which was presented to international arbitration. The first edition includes an interview with the president of...
by Lamouchi Helmi


Remarkable Arab and African participation in the 7th edition of the international congress Geotunis

Arab and African participation in the 7th edition of Geotunis held between April 8-12 2013 in the Royal Resort hotel, Hammamet in the presence of experts, specialists, scientists, representatives of ministries, companies and pe...
by Lamouchi Helmi


The interest of petroleum and energy institution in the 7th edition of Geotunis

The 7th edition of geotunis which closed on April 12, 2013 in hammamet, drew the attention of international companies known in the oil sector, such as Shell, Tunisian Company of Petroleum Activities, Iraqi Oil Institution and o...
by Lamouchi Helmi



Be the first to comment!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


* Copy This Password *

* Type Or Paste Password Here *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>